Merge Bias

Merge bias is a phenomenon resulting from uncertainty over task durations and occurs in almost all project networks, causing the deterministic estimate of project completion and of major milestones to be biased towards the optimistic.   This paper ,  which was given at the Construction CPM Conference in Orlando on 24th January 2012, explains how merge bias works.

The paper refers to an Excel spreadsheet which can also be downloaded by clicking here , and a Microsoft Project file (in 2007 format, which can be opened in  2007 or 2010).  To download the latter click here .  To use it, you will need a copy of Project 2007 or 2010 and of Full Monte.  You can download a 30-day trial of Full Monte here.

Finally, the paper also uses an executable to illustrate simulation of dice.  This is available in a .zip file which also contains the PowerPoint presentation and all the materials mentioned above (except for Full Monte itself).  To download this .zip file, click here .

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